Over the course of the past few months, it’s been readily apparent that volatility in the FX markets has become practically non-existent. Although brief swings have been seen due to tensions between Russian and Ukraine, as well as the United States and the Islamic militants in Iraq, prices have remained largely stable. Although some traders are predicting devastating fluctuations due to tensions within the UK regarding the possibility of an independent Scotland, others believe that the Pound will stay on solid ground. That is, of course, unless the UK is broken up by a majority “yes” in the upcoming vote.
The value of the Pound is largely created by the collaboration of the various political entities within the United Kingdom, including England, Scotland and Northern Ireland. If any one of these entities were to leave the UK, it seems likely that, at least over the short-term, the value of the Pound would take a hit. When asked to discuss this particular issue, Kit Juckes, a currency strategist with Societe Generale, said that, “The more divided the UK is, the weaker the pound will be…”Sterling’s correction to date has far more to do with the UK rate rethink than anything else, and there is very little political risk premium in the pricing – yet”
Other possible catalysts of price fluctuation could occur in the early months of 2015, when the Bank of England is planning on raising interest rates, the first move of its kind by any nation in recent years. That being said, it is expected that the Federal Reserve of the United States will follow up with a similar move shortly thereafter. The Federal Reserve has indicated that their strategy remains to implement a very slow, gradual increase of rates in order to ensure that the US economy, which is now developing on a much firmer footing, does not get sidetracked.
Regardless of what potential outcomes may occur, it seems likely that the rather lengthy slumber the FX markets have been in may come to an end shortly, which, for many traders, is welcome news.